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Prediction for CME (2025-04-22T08:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-04-22T08:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38502/-1
CME Note: Two heavily overlapping flux rope CMEs from the same source seen to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is two instances of significant dimming and opening field lines seen from the same location, AR 4065 (S31E10), starting at 2025-04-22T06:37Z then at 2025-04-22T07:24Z. There appears to be southern deflection in the UV imagery. Post eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2025-04-22T08:13Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-24T06:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-24T09:18Z (-17.2h, +17.2h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: IZMIRAN
Prediction Method Note:

Initial CME velocity = 1200 km/s
Background SW velocity = 500 km/s
Heliolongitude = 2 deg

Lead Time: 24.17 hour(s)
Difference: -3.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) on 2025-04-23T06:00Z

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